Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232021 210301 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.30    147.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  28.9  33.9  35.9  46.5  47.9  49.0  41.5  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  26.0  36.0  32.0  51.0  10.0   1.0  59.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  67.0  66.0  59.0  53.0  48.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   0.0  -6.0  -4.0   3.0  14.0   0.0  -6.0  N  N  F  F  N  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.6%        6.8%        7.7%
 25kt / 24h       12.1%       22.2%       17.2%
 30kt / 24h        8.4%        9.3%        8.9%
 35kt / 24h        4.2%        9.3%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        4.2%        9.3%        6.7%
 45kt / 36h        5.2%       12.8%        9.0%
 55kt / 36h        2.5%        3.6%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        3.2%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        1.8%        1.9%