Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232021 210302 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.80    147.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  20.6  24.2  28.5  30.8  41.7  45.1  48.4  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  61.0  62.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  61.0  43.0  55.0  35.0  17.0  33.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  76.0  77.0  75.0  78.0  72.0  74.0  73.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -9.0  -5.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.5%        6.2%        5.8%
 25kt / 24h       15.7%       30.6%       23.2%
 30kt / 24h        9.5%       15.1%       12.3%
 35kt / 24h        5.4%       15.1%       10.2%
 40kt / 24h        5.4%       14.3%        9.9%
 45kt / 36h       10.9%       23.4%       17.1%
 55kt / 36h        5.1%        8.0%        6.6%
 55kt / 48h        7.7%        8.8%        8.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        4.0%        2.9%
 65kt / 72h        2.3%        4.5%        3.4%