Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232021 210302 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.80    148.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  24.1  28.5  30.6  33.0  41.0  50.0  63.2  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  42.0  55.0  49.0  14.0  38.0  46.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  72.0  69.0  66.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  63.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0 -13.0  38.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N VF VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.8%        6.9%        7.4%
 25kt / 24h       16.8%       28.4%       22.6%
 30kt / 24h       10.8%       14.5%       12.6%
 35kt / 24h        5.9%       14.5%       10.2%
 40kt / 24h        5.9%       14.1%       10.0%
 45kt / 36h       10.6%       17.6%       14.1%
 55kt / 36h        4.8%        5.6%        5.2%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%        7.1%        6.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        2.8%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        1.7%        2.1%