Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232021 210302 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.80    148.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  32.0  35.0  35.6  39.7  36.8  62.1  85.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  58.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  54.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  59.0  50.0  27.0  18.0  34.0  52.0  51.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  79.0  77.0  76.0  77.0  75.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   6.0   4.0  -1.0  35.0 104.0 126.0  N  N  N  N  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.9%        5.1%        6.5%
 25kt / 24h       12.4%       19.6%       16.0%
 30kt / 24h        7.8%        9.4%        8.6%
 35kt / 24h        4.3%        9.4%        6.8%
 40kt / 24h        4.3%        8.4%        6.3%
 45kt / 36h        5.2%        8.9%        7.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        2.3%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        2.4%        4.3%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%