Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232021 210302 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90    148.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.0  35.4  36.2  36.3  32.8  51.9  72.2  73.7  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  50.0  27.0  26.0  24.0  54.0 106.0 114.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  77.0  72.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   7.0   6.0  -1.0   4.0  44.0  68.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.9%        3.8%        5.3%
 25kt / 24h        9.9%       15.3%       12.6%
 30kt / 24h        6.2%        6.5%        6.4%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%        6.5%        5.0%
 40kt / 24h        3.5%        5.8%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h        5.8%        8.5%        7.1%
 55kt / 36h        1.9%        2.1%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        3.1%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%