Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232021 210303 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.70    148.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  15.6  17.5  22.0  20.1  33.1  51.0  72.8  N  F  F  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  59.0  57.0  54.0  43.0  39.0  12.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  94.6  64.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    95.0 101.0 116.0 117.0  94.0 142.0 119.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  61.0  55.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   0.0  -3.0 -15.0 -12.0   0.0  56.0  N  N  N  N VF  F  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       46.4%       31.5%       39.0%
 25kt / 24h       66.5%       74.3%       70.4%
 30kt / 24h       56.7%       72.4%       64.6%
 35kt / 24h       51.5%       72.4%       62.0%
 40kt / 24h       51.5%       72.4%       62.0%
 45kt / 36h       52.2%       58.0%       55.1%
 55kt / 36h       29.6%       37.6%       33.6%
 55kt / 48h       37.9%       41.5%       39.7%
 70kt / 48h       15.6%       21.4%       18.5%
 65kt / 72h        6.1%        3.5%        4.8%