Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232021 210303 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.80    147.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     89.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  24.2  29.4  25.3  31.3  55.6  57.7  57.7  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  47.0  57.0  50.0  96.0 122.0 141.0 101.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  62.0  61.0  62.0  60.0  53.0  48.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -8.0 -10.0 -14.0  23.0  -5.0  -6.0  N  N  F  F VF VU  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       54.0%       32.3%       43.2%
 25kt / 24h       51.2%       64.8%       58.0%
 30kt / 24h       48.1%       64.8%       56.4%
 35kt / 24h       48.1%       64.8%       56.4%
 40kt / 24h       36.2%       62.4%       49.3%
 45kt / 36h       23.9%       35.5%       29.7%
 55kt / 36h        7.9%       18.3%       13.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        9.5%        5.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        3.3%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%