Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232021 210303 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.80    148.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  24.2  34.1  27.9  42.8  59.9  66.0  63.0  N  N  U  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  57.0  53.0  49.0  51.0  42.0  24.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  92.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  55.0  22.0  42.0  72.0 134.0 119.0  96.0  U  N  U  N  N VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  67.0  70.0  70.0  67.0  59.0  54.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0 -12.0 -36.0 -30.0 -27.0  10.0  -9.0   0.0  F  F VF VF VF  U  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.1%       14.7%       18.4%
 25kt / 24h       27.4%       34.3%       30.9%
 30kt / 24h       21.3%       26.6%       23.9%
 35kt / 24h       18.6%       26.6%       22.6%
 40kt / 24h       13.7%       26.6%       20.1%
 45kt / 36h       13.8%       10.2%       12.0%
 55kt / 36h        4.8%        3.1%        4.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        3.4%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%