Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232021 210303 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.20    148.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  30.5  27.9  30.0  55.9  67.7  72.2  63.3  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  89.3  90.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  22.0  42.0  57.0  91.0 129.0 100.0  60.0  N  U  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  55.0  43.0  33.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -28.0 -30.0 -20.0 -23.0  33.0  -4.0  15.0 VF VF VF VF VF VU  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.1%       10.2%       13.6%
 25kt / 24h       17.6%       26.3%       22.0%
 30kt / 24h       15.7%       23.0%       19.3%
 35kt / 24h       15.7%       23.0%       19.3%
 40kt / 24h       11.8%       23.0%       17.4%
 45kt / 36h        3.7%        3.8%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        0.9%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%