Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232021 210304 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.20    148.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  20.2  28.3  41.4  57.2  66.0  64.0  56.2  N  N  N VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  55.0  50.0  52.0  43.0  24.0  22.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  65.7  74.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  50.0  57.0  72.0 134.0 119.0  96.0  51.0  N  N  N  N VF  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  72.0  68.0  59.0  54.0  52.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -16.0 -22.0 -33.0   6.0 -10.0   0.0   7.0 VF VF VF VF  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       65.5%       32.4%       48.9%
 25kt / 24h       50.5%       46.7%       48.6%
 30kt / 24h       42.0%       41.4%       41.7%
 35kt / 24h       41.6%       41.4%       41.5%
 40kt / 24h       35.8%       39.5%       37.7%
 45kt / 36h       28.0%       10.6%       19.3%
 55kt / 36h        5.2%        3.4%        4.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%