Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232021 210304 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40    150.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  27.7  30.3  35.6  51.4  66.4  61.2  61.7  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  52.0  50.0  43.0  24.0  11.0  29.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  61.5  74.6  49.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  81.0 133.0 116.0 122.0  82.0  72.0  64.0  N  N VF  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  67.0  61.0  56.0  59.0  56.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -19.0  -7.0   5.0 -21.0   4.0 -33.0 -17.0 VF VF  F  N VF  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.2%        6.9%       10.0%
 25kt / 24h       17.2%       17.2%       17.2%
 30kt / 24h       12.7%       10.7%       11.7%
 35kt / 24h        9.2%       10.7%        9.9%
 40kt / 24h        9.2%       10.3%        9.7%
 45kt / 36h       12.9%        2.6%        7.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        0.5%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%