Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232021 210304 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.90    152.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  31.1  35.1  45.3  60.5  55.5  50.2  48.2  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  67.0  70.0  51.5  34.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0 133.0 116.0 105.0 113.0  46.0  64.0  48.0  N VF  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  70.0  66.0  63.0  55.0  40.0  33.0  34.0  F  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0  -2.0  14.0  17.0  -9.0 -17.0 -48.0 -12.0 VF  N  U  U  F VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.1%        4.7%        8.4%
 25kt / 24h        7.9%        8.7%        8.3%
 30kt / 24h        5.2%        5.5%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        5.2%        5.5%        5.4%
 40kt / 24h        5.2%        4.1%        4.7%
 45kt / 36h        7.5%        1.3%        4.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%