Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232021 210305 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.40    154.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     94.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  37.1  45.3  51.1  76.2  94.1  94.1  94.1  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  26.0  20.0  22.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  54.3   9.6 -21.3 -21.3 -21.3  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   127.0 132.0 125.0  96.0  52.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  65.0  61.0  62.0  56.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -5.0   0.0  -8.0  34.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0  F  F  N  F VU VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       54.1%       14.2%       34.1%
 25kt / 24h       20.8%       12.8%       16.8%
 30kt / 24h       13.8%        7.9%       10.9%
 35kt / 24h       12.7%        7.9%       10.3%
 40kt / 24h       12.7%        4.8%        8.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%