Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232021 210305 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80    156.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.8  47.5  59.3  72.3  88.4  88.4  88.4  88.4  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  42.3  16.2 -18.0 -18.0 -18.0 -18.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   131.0 124.0  96.0  68.0  38.0  38.0  38.0  38.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  59.0  56.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   3.0   3.0  35.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  F  N  N VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.0%        2.5%       10.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        0.8%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%