Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232021 210305 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.80    159.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.7  46.1  48.2  47.9  51.3  50.7  47.1  49.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  19.0   3.0  18.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         25.0  25.0  22.0  10.7  -5.2 -27.8 -32.0 -39.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  75.0  93.0  74.0  16.0  14.0   5.0 -18.0  N  N  F  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  59.0  58.0  50.0  44.0  41.0  35.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  40.0  45.0  29.0  42.0   1.0  -3.0  22.0  79.0 VU VU VU VU  N  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.7%        0.0%        5.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%