Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232021 210305 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.90    161.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.1  51.2  50.0  47.9  49.6  43.0  46.5  46.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         27.3  12.4  27.3  10.5 -10.4 -29.5 -30.7 -24.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  92.0  73.0  37.0  20.0   9.0 -18.0 -20.0  N  F  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  63.0  60.0  59.0  53.0  50.0  46.0  43.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  49.0  49.0  48.0  46.0  71.0  52.0 121.0  63.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        0.0%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%