Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232021 210306 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.20    163.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -40.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.7  54.3  63.6  76.5  93.3  93.3  93.3  93.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.4  31.2  16.5  -4.1 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  66.0  22.0  18.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  51.0  44.0  42.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -31.0  -1.0 -14.0  -4.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0 VF  N VF  F VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons