Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232021 210306 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.30    169.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        60.9  68.9  87.7  92.9 108.3 107.4 107.4 107.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         28.0  10.5  -4.1 -17.9 -31.5 -39.7 -39.7 -39.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0   7.0  12.0  29.0  61.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  43.0  37.0  38.0  48.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  U VU VU VU  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -23.0 -22.0  64.0  36.0  27.0  29.0  29.0  29.0 VF VF VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons