Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210305 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60     74.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  23.8  21.1  25.0  23.5  19.9  21.6  23.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  62.0  62.0  55.0  39.0  36.0  35.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  61.0  66.0  50.0  78.0  75.0  54.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  47.0  48.0  51.0  56.0  59.0  63.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -6.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.3%       17.7%       20.5%
 25kt / 24h       45.5%       57.3%       51.4%
 30kt / 24h       33.2%       45.5%       39.4%
 35kt / 24h       22.7%       45.5%       34.1%
 40kt / 24h       22.5%       45.5%       34.0%
 45kt / 36h       32.4%       52.1%       42.3%
 55kt / 36h       19.9%       30.9%       25.4%
 55kt / 48h       24.7%       32.0%       28.4%
 70kt / 48h       18.3%       22.9%       20.6%
 65kt / 72h       31.2%       28.3%       29.8%