Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210305 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.40     75.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    45.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  21.7  25.0  23.2  21.1  22.4  21.1  29.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  66.0  50.0  68.0  63.0  83.0  56.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  51.0  52.0  54.0  57.0  57.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -6.0  -6.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       68.4%       29.5%       48.9%
 25kt / 24h       60.1%       50.4%       55.2%
 30kt / 24h       60.1%       45.2%       52.6%
 35kt / 24h       60.1%       45.2%       52.6%
 40kt / 24h       60.1%       45.2%       52.6%
 45kt / 36h       67.3%       32.5%       49.9%
 55kt / 36h       25.9%       17.2%       21.6%
 55kt / 48h       21.9%       13.5%       17.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%