Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210305 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.30     76.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    60.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  19.8  20.6  22.0  22.6  24.3  27.6  31.2  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  47.0  44.0  42.0  40.0  41.0  43.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  43.0  49.0  68.0  68.0  77.0  59.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  50.0  48.0  47.0  55.0  59.0  61.0  56.0 VU  U  U VU  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   1.0   4.0   4.0  -4.0   1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       53.2%       14.6%       33.9%
 25kt / 24h       27.4%       19.4%       23.4%
 30kt / 24h       27.4%       13.2%       20.3%
 35kt / 24h       27.4%       13.2%       20.3%
 40kt / 24h       27.4%       11.4%       19.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%