Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210306 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00     77.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  23.1  20.3  23.3  27.4  31.5  42.3  36.6  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  41.0  42.0  43.0  44.0  44.0  42.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  52.0  58.0  58.0  36.0  45.0  53.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  48.0  49.0  52.0  53.0  51.0  49.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.7%        3.5%        6.6%
 25kt / 24h        6.5%        6.5%        6.5%
 30kt / 24h        4.7%        3.9%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        3.9%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%