Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210306 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.20     78.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  21.2  24.4  26.9  30.5  38.0  43.1  39.2  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  58.0  58.0  62.0  37.0  57.0  22.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  48.0  49.0  46.0  48.0  45.0  40.0  39.0  U  U  U VU  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0  -4.0  -8.0  -6.0  -6.0   4.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.3%        2.0%        5.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%        2.8%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        0.9%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%