Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210306 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.10     78.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  25.5  32.1  32.1  32.9  41.4  35.0  33.5  N  N  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  41.0  42.0  42.0  42.0  39.0  37.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  65.0  58.0  53.0  18.0  41.0   6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  51.0  49.0  47.0  44.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0  -7.0  -2.0   5.0   0.0   5.0  10.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        1.1%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        1.5%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        0.6%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%