Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210307 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.80     79.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  25.0  22.4  24.9  31.4  25.1  24.4  28.7  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  39.0  36.0  33.0  26.0  27.0  37.0  42.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  49.3  47.0  42.3  44.6  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  49.0  31.0  40.0  57.0  20.0   7.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  49.0  41.0  45.0  43.0  43.0  39.0  42.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        1.2%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        2.6%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        1.3%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        1.3%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        0.7%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%