Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210307 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.90     79.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  22.5  22.6  24.3  26.5  26.6  26.5  32.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  44.6  42.3  47.0  50.0  49.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  31.0  41.0  55.0  31.0  22.0   7.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  43.0  44.0  40.0  39.0  39.0  38.0  42.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   1.0  -2.0  -8.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        1.6%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        3.3%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        1.7%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        1.7%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        0.9%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%