Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210307 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10     80.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  21.7  31.1  29.1  25.5  22.5  17.8  25.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  32.0  28.0  24.0  26.0  36.0  39.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  57.0  54.6  52.3  57.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  36.0  44.0  14.0  11.0  -9.0  -2.0   2.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  45.0  43.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  44.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -5.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.7%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        6.4%        0.4%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%