Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210308 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.20     81.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  18.8  19.5  23.9  21.7  23.7  30.8  25.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         72.9  72.9  75.1  79.6  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0   8.0  11.0   2.0   3.0   1.0  -8.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  42.0  43.0  42.0  42.0  48.0  48.0  55.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   4.0   7.0   7.0   3.0  12.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        4.3%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.4%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%        1.2%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.6%        2.0%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        8.4%        0.6%        4.5%