Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210308 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.40     81.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  15.6  18.5  20.2  10.7  16.8  11.3  11.1  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  14.0  13.0  12.0   9.0   6.0   5.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         73.6  71.5  69.4  69.4  67.4  59.8  58.0  61.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  35.0  36.0  26.0 -14.0 -12.0  21.0  59.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  48.0  46.0  45.0  45.0  49.0  54.0  60.0 VU  U VU VU VU  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%