Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210308 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.70     80.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  20.3  24.1  20.1  28.0  24.6  32.0  26.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         85.7  90.1  94.6  99.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0   5.0 -10.0  -9.0  10.0  -1.0  10.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  41.0  42.0  40.0  47.0  49.0  55.0  61.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   3.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        4.8%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        2.1%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.1%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        1.7%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        2.3%        2.6%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.3%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h       11.2%        1.1%        6.2%