Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210309 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.50     80.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  19.4  15.4  13.9  21.8  19.6  27.0  29.7  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  30.0  38.0  41.0  39.0  39.0  37.0  29.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.3  97.0  99.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  -3.0   0.0 -30.0   9.0  11.0  55.0  38.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  39.0  43.0  43.0  48.0  49.0  51.0  55.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   2.0  -4.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        2.7%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        5.7%       16.7%       11.2%
 30kt / 24h        3.5%       12.3%        7.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%       12.3%        7.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       10.0%        5.9%
 45kt / 36h        3.9%        7.0%        5.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        2.3%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        3.9%        8.4%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        5.9%        2.7%        4.3%