Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210309 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.40     79.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  15.1  14.8  18.6  21.4  25.3  27.9  32.2  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         99.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0   0.0 -31.0 -24.0  20.0  31.0  42.0  59.0  U  U VU VU  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  43.0  43.0  50.0  48.0  51.0  53.0  57.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0  -2.0   3.0  -3.0  -6.0 -15.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.0%        4.0%        4.0%
 25kt / 24h        8.2%       17.2%       12.7%
 30kt / 24h        7.8%       11.3%        9.5%
 35kt / 24h        5.4%       11.3%        8.3%
 40kt / 24h        5.4%       11.3%        8.3%
 45kt / 36h        8.9%        6.4%        7.7%
 55kt / 36h        4.2%        1.9%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        7.3%        7.7%        7.5%
 70kt / 48h        3.6%        1.2%        2.4%
 65kt / 72h       18.2%        3.2%       10.7%