Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210309 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.90     78.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.7  19.2  19.1  16.6  20.0  22.6  29.5  37.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         79.3  79.3  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  79.3  74.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -28.0 -31.0  -1.0   2.0  36.0  42.0  80.0  67.0 VU VU  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  47.0  48.0  48.0  49.0  52.0  55.0  60.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  -3.0  -4.0 -19.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       65.2%       36.0%       50.6%
 25kt / 24h       67.4%       55.0%       61.2%
 30kt / 24h       67.4%       54.7%       61.0%
 35kt / 24h       67.4%       54.7%       61.0%
 40kt / 24h       67.4%       54.7%       61.0%
 45kt / 36h       55.0%       36.2%       45.6%
 55kt / 36h       28.6%       22.0%       25.3%
 55kt / 48h       21.2%       18.2%       19.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h       13.8%        6.4%       10.1%