Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210310 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.50     76.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  18.5  18.0  19.9  18.3  17.9  23.3  35.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0   3.0  12.0  41.0  51.0  67.0  62.0  33.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  56.0  60.0  60.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0  -3.0 -12.0 -12.0 -11.0 -12.0 -28.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       49.0%       16.2%       32.6%
 25kt / 24h       25.6%       21.6%       23.6%
 30kt / 24h       23.8%       16.3%       20.0%
 35kt / 24h       22.6%       16.3%       19.5%
 40kt / 24h       22.6%       12.0%       17.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%