Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210310 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.50     76.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  18.0  19.6  19.6  22.2  22.1  27.3  31.6  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  36.0  36.0  36.0  30.0  21.0  18.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  34.3  32.0  27.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  14.0  50.0  71.0  61.0  82.0  48.0  38.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  49.0  51.0  55.0  56.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -2.0  -6.0  -7.0 -15.0 -10.0  -7.0 -16.0  N  N  F  F VF  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       33.4%        9.3%       21.4%
 25kt / 24h       13.1%       10.3%       11.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%