Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210311 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40     74.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  19.8  15.8  14.4  25.8  26.4  28.5  32.1  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  36.0  33.0  30.0  25.0  18.0  11.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  34.3  29.6  22.9  12.4  14.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  16.0  -7.0  21.0  59.0  49.0  56.0  56.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  49.0  47.0  43.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   5.0   4.0   0.0  -5.0  -2.0  -5.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        1.6%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        2.8%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%