Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210311 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.90     73.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  20.0  20.8  22.3  26.8  35.9  31.9  36.9  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  28.0  27.0  26.0  24.0  20.0  17.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  39.3  37.0  34.6  34.6  34.6  30.1  30.1  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  31.0  34.0  55.0  29.0  41.0   4.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  55.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -16.0 -13.0 -17.0 -13.0 -17.0  -2.0  13.0  F VF VF VF VF VF  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        1.8%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        2.4%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        0.8%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%