Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210312 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.80     70.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.4  44.9  43.0  36.1  38.2  44.3  50.2  46.9  U VU VU  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         45.1  45.1  42.9  38.6  36.5  38.6  42.9  45.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  35.0  31.0  21.0  -1.0  18.0 -21.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  53.0  55.0  53.0  51.0  47.0  46.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -17.0 -17.0 -12.0  -7.0   7.0  20.0  33.0  36.0 VF VF  F  F  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%