Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210313 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.20     70.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.6  34.2  36.6  36.0  47.9  59.0  65.7  62.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0   9.0   6.0   5.0   7.0   9.0  21.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.7  32.4  26.6  23.0  21.2  21.2  26.6  28.5  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  47.0  41.0  40.0  41.0  28.0  18.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  54.0  51.0  47.0  39.0  36.0  30.0  28.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   4.0   7.0   7.0   3.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.2%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons