Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210313 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.70     70.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.8  36.9  35.3  36.7  45.8  50.4  48.7  43.8  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         60.7  58.6  56.5  56.5  56.5  60.7  58.6  56.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  26.0   7.0   1.0  12.0 -13.0  -4.0  -6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  51.0  48.0  45.0  41.0  42.0  45.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   2.0   3.0   6.0  26.0  39.0  36.0  18.0  F  N  N  N VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%