Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210313 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.20     70.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.0  42.7  48.0  52.8  59.7  64.9  66.3  53.3  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   5.0   5.0   3.0   0.7   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         62.4  56.6  53.0  51.2  42.7  36.5  30.8  26.7  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  15.0  25.0  27.0  11.0   0.0  11.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  52.0  49.0  48.0  44.0  38.0  36.0  37.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   1.0  -4.0   5.0   8.0   7.0   3.0  -3.0  F  N  F  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons