Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210313 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.40     70.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.4  39.3  42.8  47.7  50.2  48.8  51.8  40.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         60.5  60.5  60.5  60.5  64.4  66.5  68.6  72.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0   6.0  21.0   3.0 -11.0   6.0 -18.0  -2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  48.0  47.0  46.0  41.0  42.0  41.0  46.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   1.0   7.0  24.0  38.0  40.0  35.0  17.0  F  N  N VU VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.2%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons