Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210314 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.60     70.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.9  43.1  44.5  45.5  48.1  43.2  43.6  36.3  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   7.0   7.0   8.0  10.0  12.0  21.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.5  63.5  63.5  63.5  67.4  69.4  75.7  77.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  34.0  17.0 -11.0  11.0 -18.0   1.0 -15.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  46.0  43.0  38.0  35.0  36.0  37.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0   0.0   4.0  13.0  27.0  28.0  19.0  19.0  F  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.2%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons