Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210314 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.00     70.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        51.1  51.8  50.5  50.7  40.0  37.8  36.1  34.6 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  10.0  15.0  20.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.5  80.5  82.4  84.4  84.4  88.6  92.9  88.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0 -14.0 -18.0  -8.0 -10.0  -3.0  -8.0  -4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  45.0  41.0  41.0  38.0  36.0  39.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0   6.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  10.0  14.0  F  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons