Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210315 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.10     71.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.7  39.1  42.0  40.1  35.2  36.4  32.8  35.5 VU  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        101.6 101.6  99.8  99.8 105.5 117.9 124.6 122.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0 -11.0 -12.0 -16.0 -23.0 -34.0 -13.0   4.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  36.0  34.0  35.0  35.0  40.0  45.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -8.0  -2.0  -2.0   3.0   6.0   6.0  12.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        0.1%        0.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons