Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210316 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.40     70.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.8  47.6  47.4  48.5  46.4  45.2  37.7  34.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   8.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.2  99.4  97.7  97.7  96.0  97.7 101.2 106.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0 -12.0   0.0  -5.0 -42.0 -43.0  12.0  -4.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  39.0  39.0  38.0  37.0  36.0  37.0  39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   2.0   1.0  -1.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons