Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210316 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.60     70.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.6  47.2  46.8  43.5  40.7  38.1  37.6  42.3 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         96.2  94.4  96.2  98.0 103.5 111.5 111.5 109.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0   0.0  -5.0 -17.0 -20.0 -17.0  10.0 -10.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  36.0  34.0  34.0  36.0  34.0  39.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   9.0   4.0   8.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        0.1%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons