Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242021 210316 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.90     70.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        52.5  49.2  45.4  46.2  40.3  34.3  35.1  40.5 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   2.0   5.0  13.0  16.0  19.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.4  97.7  99.4 101.2 106.6 116.5 120.7 114.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  15.0 -17.0 -42.0 -43.0  12.0  -4.0  -6.0  U  U  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  36.0  36.0  35.0  35.0  37.0  45.0  50.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   6.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons