Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252021 210308 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.90     59.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        61.7  63.5  66.0  66.8  61.0  53.2  51.9  53.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         88.0  81.0  73.0  70.0  64.4  61.7  57.9  50.9  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  63.0  33.0  27.0  29.0  -8.0  34.0  -1.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  42.0  37.0  40.0  39.0  33.0  33.0  37.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0  -2.0  -9.0  -5.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0  F  F  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons