Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262021 210405 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.10    121.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.9  36.4  41.3  44.1  43.9  29.7  23.9  20.4  U  U VU VU VU  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  27.0  35.0  46.0  78.0 102.0  61.0  46.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  66.0  69.0  71.0  70.0  71.0  73.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -8.0  -4.0  -7.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        2.3%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%        9.1%        7.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        3.2%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        3.2%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        2.7%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%        4.2%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        2.7%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        6.8%        4.6%        5.7%